Speaking at the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association Conference, the chairman of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA), James Siva, explained that tribal casinos could lose as much as 25% of their gross revenue if prediction markets expansion continues unchecked.
Siva Says Tribal Casinos Stand to Lose a Lot to Prediction Markets
Early projections estimate that the tribal gaming industry could lose 5% of its revenue due to the rise of prediction markets. According to Siva, that financial impact is roughly equivalent to eliminating funding for the Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Siva said that if prediction markets are allowed to expand, tribal gaming could see a 25% decline in gross gaming revenue within the next year. He said the financial impact would be comparable to defunding the Bureau of Indian Affairs, the Bureau of Indian Education, and Indian Health Service, arguing that the lost revenue supports programs that improve the lives of tribal citizens.
These warnings aren’t anything new, as industry leaders have been warning about similar trends for a long time. In fact, back in May, the American Gaming Association (AGA) and the Indian Gaming Association wrote a joint letter to lawmakers, urging them to place further restrictions on prediction markets.
Here Are Some Numbers
If Siva’s forecast proves accurate, prediction markets could cost tribal casinos billions in lost revenue. The National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC) reported that tribal gaming operations generated $46.2 billion in revenue in 2025, meaning a 25% decline would amount to roughly $11.55 billion.
Whether Siva’s estimate ultimately proves accurate remains unclear. However, the AGA said in May that prediction markets had already diverted $1 billion in tax revenue that would otherwise have gone to states and tribal governments. According to the casino industry trade group, that estimate has since increased to $1.21 billion.
Could a Resolution Come from the US Supreme Court?
Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association Chairman Matthew Morgan, who moderated the panel, echoed Siva’s view that the dispute between tribal gaming interests, states, and prediction markets is ultimately likely to be resolved by the US Supreme Court. That being said, experts predict that such a resolution would come sometime next year, meaning tribal casinos will still likely lose a lot of money.
Morgan also pointed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) pending rulemaking, noting that the agency is expected to soon finalize more than 25 pages of amendments governing prediction markets. The proposed changes would establish a three-part framework for determining whether event contracts involve unlawful activity, terrorism, assassination, war, or gaming, and whether they are contrary to the public interest. The amendments would also revise the legal definition of “gaming,“ a move that tribal leaders and state regulators argue exceeds the CFTC’s authority.
Until these problems are resolved, it appears that tribal casinos will have to contend with increased competition from prediction market platforms.