July has witnessed prediction markets in the US reach yet another record, with average daily trading volume reaching almost $2 billion, courtesy of the FIFA World Cup.
Up 9% from June
According to research from Jefferies, the average daily volume reached a whopping $1.91 billion during the month, marking a 9% increase from June.
While the World Cup was the primary catalyst, analysts also noted steady growth in non-sports markets, highlighting the industry’s expanding appeal beyond major sporting events.
Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon said platforms outside the industry’s largest operators generated $161 million in average daily volume during July. Although their combined market share slipped from 10% in June to 8%, some newer entrants continued gaining traction.
One of those was Rothera, the prediction market launched through a partnership between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group.
The platform recorded $70 million in average daily volume, up 24% from the previous month. However, activity varied significantly throughout July as World Cup contracts expired, with weekly trading peaking at $137 million in late June before dropping to $8 million by the end of July.
Sports in the Lead Again
As expected, sports markets stayed on tip throughout the tournament, with average daily sports trading rising 12% month over month to $1.33 billion, accounting for 76% of all trading activity in July, compared with 67% in June.
Non-sports markets also continued to grow, even during one of the busiest sports betting periods of the year.
Average daily volume in those markets increased 5% to $424 million, suggesting that traders are increasingly using prediction markets to speculate on politics, economics and other real-world events.
Most Lucrative Event
The World Cup proved to be the industry’s biggest event on record. Jefferies cited data from Chainanalysis showing the tournament generated approximately $20 billion in prediction market trading volume, far surpassing the $3.6 billion associated with the 2024 US presidential election, previously the largest prediction market event.
On top of trading, July also attracted a series of important corporate developments, with Fanatics announcing the acquisition of a regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC Group, which now enables it to bring exchange operations in-house.
Reports also surfaced about a possible partnership between Crypto.com and Robinhood, with no agreement yet confirmed.
The month concluded with another major deal when IG Group announced on July 30 that it would acquire prediction market operator Underdog in a transaction valued at $1.3 billion, underscoring growing investor confidence in the rapidly expanding sector.