A former US congressman will now pay $35,000 to settle a federal investigation into alleged trades on the prediction market platform Kalshi.
According to investigators, George Santos placed a trade on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February.
A settlement amount in the above-cited figure was reached with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal authority tasked with investigating instances of abuse and manipulation of financial markets, which has also been responding to signals over fraudulent prediction market activity.
This is not the first time an administration insider has been involved in a controversy over the use of prediction markets.
In fact, a long-standing teleprompter operator for President Trump was himself caught betting on what the President would say (or not say) during broadcasts, with the account’s activity registered during those same broadcasts.
The teleprompter, much like Santos, is going to settle with the CFTC and not face criminal charges, even though this constitutes insider trading.
The incidents have left a bitter aftertaste in observers who retort that a college athlete caught doing the same thing would have his career ended, and possibly face penalties, whereas a congressman and a member of the President’s inner circle appear to almost be getting a free pass.
The CFTC released a statement describing the incident involving Santos, and said:
“The order finds that between February 12, 2026, and February 25, 2026, Santos traded a contract titled “Who will attend the State of the Union?” and more specifically, traded on whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union or not.”
How such blatant disregard of morality and common decency is allowed to thrive in the age of prediction markets is almost incomprehensible.
On the flipside, the good news is that Kalshi itself has flagged the issues, showing impartiality at least from these specific cases that the company would go after manipulation no matter from whom it came – someone in the President’s circle or a lawmaker.
This entire case smacks of the time outgoing Tory MPs gambled on themselves to be routed at sportsbooks, causing a widespread scandal within the party, and losing to Labor.