This is How Not To Play Heads-up Against One Of The World’s Best…

Heads-up is the arguably the most important part of any poker tournament, but with $350,950 up for grabs at the final table of the $10,000 GGMillion$ on GGPoker, every decision becomes even more important.

That’s why GTO Wizard are taking a look at this hand that decided the outcome of Samuel Vousden’s GGMillion$ victory back in June. In this limped pot, the solver takes a look at all the streets, all the sizings, and what went into the decisions made by both Vousden and heads-up opponent Daniel Lakerveld.

Pre-flop Analysis

We pick up the action heads-up. Samuel Vousden holds a commanding chip lead with around 16 million compared to his opponent Daniel Lakerveld with just over 2 million.

• Samuel Vousden (SB/BTN): 16,176,194 (64.7bb)
• Daniel Lakerveld (BB): 2,339,806 (9.4bb)

Samuel Vousden picks up 9♠7♥ on the button and limps in the small blind, which is the button heads-up.

According to the solver, 97o is a pure call from the small blind, so this decision is GTO Approved.

Lakerveld then checks back from the BB with 8♥6♣

So far, so GTO Approved. 86o mostly prefers checking back in this spot, with the solver only mixing in an all-in at a very low frequency.

Post-flop Analysis

With 560,000 in the pot, the flop came 10♥7♣4♣. Lakerveld checks with the 8♥6♣ which is GTO Approved. The solver recommends that the BB pure checks this flop, as the SB holds the overall range advantage.

Vousden checks back having flopped middle pair. This is also GTO Approved.

Recommended Strategy and EV for 97o:

Although the solver bets 35.6% of the range overall on this flop, 97o is a pure check, as are most second pair [7x[ combos.

The turn is the 7♦. Lakerveld bets 560,000 which is the size of the pot. This is GTO Approved as you will see below.

Recommended Strategy and EV for 86o:

Most 86o combos are pure bets, mixing between the 67% and 98% sizings, as both generate exactly the same EV.

Vousden calls.

Recommended Strategy and EV for 97o:

97o is a pure call vs this bet size. The solver gives the SB no raising range in this spot, so let’s compare both ranges to understand why.
BB vs SB Range Comparison:

On this turn card, the EV, equity, and best-hand advantages shift in favour of the BB’s range. This explains why the BB can use such an aggressive betting strategy, and why the solver gives the SB no raising range, even with hands as strong as trips.

Calling in position with a hand like 97o still allows the SB to get the money in on most rivers due to the low SPR, while also keeping the calling range protected by including some strong hands.

The 8♣ completed the board. Lakerveld continues for 420,000. This is not approved by the GTO Wizard sovlers.

Recommended Strategy and EV for 86o:

Unfortunately for Lakerveld, the solver recommends a pure check with all 86o combos on this river card.

I’ve highlighted all the second pair combos in the BB’s range, and as you can see, the solver recommends checking all of them, as this produces the highest EV overall.

Vousden then shoves for 1,109,806. This is GTO Approved.

Recommended Strategy and EV for 97o:

Although the flush and some straights complete on the river, all 97o combos are pure raise all-ins for value, as they can still extract value from a wide range of worse hands.

SB’s Trips Combos:

You can see, however, that the weaker trip combos prefer calling vs this bet size, so not all trip hands are raising all-in for value in this spot.

To better reflect the strategy Lakerveld used in game, I’ll nodelock the BB to use the 25% sizing more frequently with hands such as 86o. This will allow us to analyse whether his river call vs the all-in raise was correct.

In response to this nodelocked range, you can see that the SB now raises all-in with 48.2% of hands, compared to just 39.1% previously.

In the end, Lakerveld makes the call which is another decision that is not GTO Approved.

Recommended Strategy and EV for 86o:

Sadly for Lakerveld, this is another mistake. Most 86o combos want to fold vs this raise, with only 8♦6♣ being a profitable call.

Although the solver does mix in some calls with 8♥6♣, the call is still -EV overall, meaning folding is the better option.

Key Takeaways

• 97o is a pure complete from the SB, while 86o mostly checks back preflop.
• The SB holds the range advantage on the flop, leading to a pure check from the BB.
• Despite betting occurring overall on the flop, both players followed the solver’s preferred strategy with their specific combos.
• The turn dramatically shifts in favour of the BB, giving them the EV, equity, and best-hand advantages.
• Even with trips, the solver prefers the SB to have no raising range on the turn and simply call.
• 86o should pure check on the river, making Lakerveld’s river lead a mistake.
• 97o is a pure raise all-in for value on the river despite the flush and straight completions.
• The smaller river sizing used by Lakerveld encourages the SB to raise all-in more frequently.
• Facing the river raise, most 86o combos should fold, making Lakerveld’s call another mistake.
• Vousden’s river raise was fully solver-approved and helped secure both the pot and the tournament win.

Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson is a professional poker player, streamer and content creator. In 2021, he gained significant recognition by setting a Twitch world record, streaming 1,000 hours of online poker over 100 days. Robinson also participated in the inaugural season of “Game of Gold.”