A study from the Rede em Jogo project at CondadoLab, part of Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), found that 84% of betting operators most frequently recommended by Instagram’s algorithm operate without authorization in Brazil.
Researchers mapped more than 55 Instagram accounts and cross-referenced the data against the official registry maintained by Brazil’s Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) to determine which companies function outside current regulations.
According to the study, once a user follows a single betting account, Instagram’s recommendation system begins suggesting dozens of similar profiles. The 100 accounts most frequently surfaced by the algorithm have a combined following of more than 6 million users across 114 posts.
Researchers grouped the accounts into three categories: betting operators, content creators specializing in gambling promotion, and media outlets covering the betting market.
Creators build subscription businesses around betting tips
The study documents a network of self-described “tipsters” and “sports traders” who monetize betting predictions through paid subscriptions, Telegram groups, spreadsheets, and automated tools.
One creator identified in the research, referred to as Pedro, advertises access to a “premium group with higher odds” on his Instagram stories, offering a plan he says normally costs R$397.00 ($77.26) per month for R$14.91 ($2.90) per month under an annual subscription.
The study describes recurring messaging among these accounts, including promises to “get out of your cushy job” and claims of guaranteed returns. Creators frequently post screenshots of testimonials from users who report high profits from following their predictions.
Researchers found that humor, including memes and short-form videos, is used to normalize high-risk betting behavior and complicates efforts to identify signs of compulsive gambling. The study concludes that this content reframes games of chance as competitive skill-based activities, recasting gambling outcomes as evidence of expertise.
Pattern extends to online casino content
The study identified a similar structure among accounts focused on online casino games, including one creator, identified as João, who produces livestream-style videos simulating high-win sessions and identifies which operators or games are “paying the most” at a given time.
According to researchers, this creator also shares with Telegram subscribers specific times associated with higher win rates and describes patterns in game interfaces, such as visual animations, that he says signal an approaching payout.
Researchers noted that most operator accounts in the dataset belong to international companies that may hold licenses in their countries of origin but lack authorization from Brazil’s Secretariat of Prizes and Bets to operate domestically.
Specialized media accounts — including channels, portals, and sports commentary pages — round out the ecosystem, the study found, presenting betting promotions in a format resembling journalistic coverage of odds, operator features, and bettor outcomes.
Regulatory language cited as legitimizing tool
The study found that many of the accounts reviewed make generic references to industry bodies such as the National Council for Advertising Self-Regulation (Conar) and the Betting Management System (Sigap), along with mentions of “responsible gambling,” even when the accounts belong to unlicensed operators.
Researchers noted that some operators use the term “authorized” in promotional material and register domains with the .bet extension despite lacking a valid Brazilian license.
Meta’s gambling advertising policies require operators to obtain prior platform authorization, demonstrate they hold an operating license, and avoid targeting users under 18.
Companies that register with Meta sign a contract releasing the company from liability tied to content violations or related legal and administrative proceedings, according to the study.
Researchers said Meta’s policies on organic content reference safety measures and age restrictions for users over 18 but do not address responsible gambling practices, detail regulatory obligations, or specify how the company verifies licenses or identifies unauthorized operators. Meta did not respond to a request for comment prior to the study’s publication, according to the report.
Researchers concluded that the absence of governance policies aligned with current gambling regulations, combined with Instagram’s algorithmic recommendation system, creates a systemic risk in which Meta functions as a central actor.
The study recommends expanding the regulatory authority of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets and Brazil’s National Data Protection Agency, including mandatory technological and monitoring mechanisms to identify and moderate unauthorized gambling content — measures researchers say would go beyond current transparency reporting and post-notification content removal.