The poker world was watching on in awe earlier this month, as Ossi “Monarch” Ketola took on Patrik Antonius in a $20,000,000 heads-up match at the Triton Jeju SHRS festival.
Ultimately, it was Ketola who walked away the winner, boosted by a straight flush that saw him edge ahead and then defeat his compatriot on the very next hand.
An incredible hand from Monarch and an equally impressive fold from Antonius. But did either player make any mistakes along the way?
Let’s put this huge heads-up pot into GTO Wizard and see whether the solver agrees with how both players approached the hand.
Pre-Flop Analysis
Patrik Antonius limped pre-flop with K♦9♠.
The solver recommends a mixed strategy between calling and raising to 2.5bb with K9o, alongside many of the middling hands in the range. Only 7.9% of hands are folded overall, consisting primarily of the very bottom of the SB’s range.
Ossi “Monarch” Ketola raises to $350,000 from the BB with Q♥9♥
Versus the limp, Q9s is a pure raise, with the solver preferring the same 3.5bb sizing that Ketola used in game.
Antonius then calls. K9o is a pure call vs the 3.5bb raise. In fact, K6o is the weakest offsuit Kx hand that remains profitable to call in this spot, making Antonius’ decision with K♦9♠ a comfortable defend.
Post-Flop Analysis
With $700,000 in the pot, the flop came Q♠J♥8♥ and Ketola checked. All Q9s combos prefer betting overall on this flop, but they also mix in checks at some frequency, making Ketola’s check with Q♥9♥ perfectly in line with the solver.
Recommended Strategy and EV for Q9s:
You can see that the EV of checking and betting with Q♥9♥ is almost identical, making both options perfectly viable in this spot.
Antonius bets $175,000. This is the first mistake of the hand.
The solver recommends mostly checking in this spot, although some K9o combos do prefer betting at a low frequency. Let’s take a closer look at why Antonius’ specific combo prefers checking.
Recommended Strategy and EV for K9o:
You can see that K♦9♠ mostly wants to check, while the K9o combos containing the K♥ prefer betting at a much higher frequency. But why is this?
When bluffing, you generally want a hand that retains decent equity when called while also blocking some of your opponent’s strongest continuing hands. K♦9x ticks both of these boxes, with the K♥ providing additional backdoor flush equity while also blocking some of the BB’s heart draws.
K♦9♠ lacks these properties, which is why the solver strongly prefers checking this specific combo.
To continue analysing the hand, I’ll nodelock Antonius’ range to include more bets than the solver recommends, including hands such as K♦9♠.
Ketola then raises to $525,000. The solver once again recommends a mixed strategy with all Q9s combos, splitting between calling and raising.
Ketola’s decision to raise with Q♥9♥ is therefore perfectly in line with the solver.
Recommended Strategy and EV for Q9s:
The raise size that Ketola used in game actually generates significantly higher EV than calling, making his decision to check-raise even more effective in this spot.
Antonius calls.
No K9o combos fold vs this raise size, with almost all of them pure calling.
The turn was the 10♥. With $1,750,000 in the middle, Ketola checked.
The solver recommends a lot of checking on this turn from the BB.
Recommended Strategy and EV for Q9s:
All Q9s combos prefer to pure check on this turn. Let’s compare both players’ ranges to understand why the solver favours such a passive strategy here.
BB vs SB Turn Range Comparison:
With the SB now holding the EV, equity and EQR advantages on this specific turn card, the BB is forced to check at a high frequency and use a more polarised strategy when it does choose to bet.
What is a Polarised betting strategy?
A strategy where you bet only your very strong hands and your bluffs, while checking all medium-strength hands.
The goal is to maximize value with the best hands and apply pressure with bluffs, making it difficult for opponents to exploit your range.
Antonius bets $625,000. Some K9o combos do prefer betting on this turn, but never using the $625K (6.25bb) sizing that Antonius chose in game.
Recommended Strategy and EV for K9o:
Most K9o combos mix between checking and betting on this turn, but when they do bet, the solver exclusively prefers the larger $1.17M (11.7bb) sizing.
To continue analysing the hand accurately, I’ll once again nodelock the SB range to include the smaller 6.25bb sizing that Antonius used in game.
Ketola then check-raises Antonius for the second street in a row, this time to $1,600,000. The BB mostly prefers calling vs this bet size due to its EV, equity and EQR disadvantages on this turn.
As a result, the solver recommends a much more cautious continuing strategy, with raising reserved for a highly polarised selection of hands.
Recommended Strategy and EV for Q9s:
Even Q♥9♥ prefers calling in this spot. With a made straight flush, the hand requires no protection from being outdrawn on the river, while calling keeps the SB’s bluffs in the pot and still allows Ketola to extract maximum value from many of the SB’s value hands on later streets.
To continue analysing the hand, I’ll nodelock the BB range to include more raises, more closely reflecting the strategy Ketola used in game.
Antonius calls once more.
All K9o combos are once again pure calls vs this turn raise size.
The 3♣ completes the board on the river. Ketola snap puts Antonius all-in for his remaining $4,100,000.
The solver does recommend going all-in with many hands in Ketola’s range, including several flushes and straights. However, with Q♥9♥ specifically, the solver prefers to pure check the river.
Checking generates the highest EV overall with his precise hand. To understand why the solver prefers checking such a strong hand, let’s take a closer look at the SB’s calling range vs the all-in.
Antonius folds and Ketola takes down the $13,000,000 pot.
If we look at the SB’s calling range vs the all-in, it consists exclusively of flushes and straights, with no weaker hands continuing.
This explains why the solver prefers checking Q♥9♥ on the river. By holding Q♥9♥, Ketola heavily blocks the exact flushes and straights that are most likely to call an all-in. Instead, checking generates more EV by keeping Antonius’ entire range in the pot and giving him the opportunity to bluff the river.
Despite holding a straight flush, the best way for Ketola to maximise EV is therefore to check rather than shove.
But there’s still one final question to answer: should Antonius have called the river all-in?
Recommended Strategy and EV for K9o:
The solver confirms that folding is the correct decision, with K♦9♠ specifically preferring to pure fold vs Ketola’s river all-in.
Key Takeaways
- Preflop: Both players played perfectly according to GTO, with Antonius correctly limping and calling K♦9♠, while Ketola correctly raised Q♥9♥ to 3.5bb.
- Flop: Ketola’s check and subsequent check-raise with Q♥9♥ were both GTO-approved. Antonius made the first mistake by betting K♦9♠, with this specific combo preferring to check.
- Turn: The 10♥ gave Ketola a straight flush, but the solver surprisingly prefers calling rather than raising. With no need for protection, calling keeps Antonius’ bluffs in the pot and allows Ketola to extract more value on the river.
- River: Despite holding a straight flush, Ketola’s $4.1M all-in was not optimal. The solver prefers a pure check with Q♥9♥ because it heavily blocks the straights and flushes that would call the shove.
- Antonius’ Fold: Antonius made an impressive and solver-approved fold with K♦9♠, correctly laying down his straight vs the river all-in.
- Overall: Having the strongest possible hand doesn’t always mean betting or raising is best. When you heavily block your opponent’s calling range, allowing them to continue bluffing can generate significantly more EV.
Lukas Robinson
Poker Pro & Sigma Poker Tour Ambassador