Macau’s casino industry recorded gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP$21.68 billion (approximately US$2.69 billion) in October, marking a 10% decline compared with the same month in 2025. Data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) and cited by Inside Asian Gaming showed that the market continued to experience annual revenue contractions despite the inclusion of China’s National Day Golden Week holiday, traditionally an important period for tourism to the city.
October represented the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in Macau’s gaming revenue. The latest reduction was also the second-largest monthly contraction recorded in 2026, following June’s 12.1% decrease.
The October result nevertheless represented a substantial improvement over September, when casinos generated approximately MOP$18.06 billion. Revenue increased by 20% month-on-month, supported by the Golden Week holiday and events including the NBA China Games, which took place at The Venetian Macao early in October.
Despite the monthly recovery, the latest figures have raised further questions about the industry’s ability to achieve the government’s full-year revenue target of MOP$236 billion.
Five Consecutive Months of Annual Revenue Declines
The October figures extended a downward trend that began in June, following a relatively strong opening five months of 2026. January had delivered a 24% year-on-year increase, while the market also recorded growth throughout the remainder of the first five months.
The situation changed in June, when GGR dropped 12.1% compared with the previous year. July followed with an 8.4% contraction, while August and September each recorded declines of 1.2%. October’s 10% reduction continued the pattern.
According to the DICJ’s monthly figures, Macau casinos generated MOP$21.68 billion in October, compared with MOP$24.09 billion in the corresponding month of 2025. The difference amounted to approximately MOP$2.4 billion.
The comparison was particularly demanding because October 2025 had been the strongest month of that year up to that point, with revenue exceeding MOP$24 billion.
The latest decline also occurred during mainland China’s National Day Golden Week, which generally brings increased visitor activity to Macau. The NBA China Games at The Venetian Macao provided another event during the reporting period, contributing to the improvement from September. However, these factors were insufficient to prevent another annual contraction.
Analysts had anticipated a stronger October performance. CLSA maintained its forecast of MOP$24.1 billion for the month in early October, which would have represented flat year-on-year revenue. Market expectations cited at the time ranged from a 3.5% decline to 4% growth. The reported result fell below that forecast range.
Macau’s accumulated GGR for January through October reached approximately MOP$208.80 billion, representing a 1.6% increase against the MOP$205.43 billion recorded during the corresponding period of 2025. The growth rate has weakened considerably since the spring, when cumulative annual gains exceeded 10%.
The latest performance follows a difficult third quarter. Government figures showed that industry GGR declined by approximately 3.7% year-on-year to MOP$60.4 billion between July and September. Another industry report put the quarterly contraction at 3.8%, while mass baccarat revenue fell 7.9%. Soft premium mass performance was identified as a significant contributor to the quarterly weakness.
Analysts Warn of Continued Pressure on Gaming Operators
Market researchers have expressed caution about the near-term outlook for Macau’s casino industry. In an October 17 research note, China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Ltd (CICC) said there was “no clear near-term inflection point” in either Macau’s GGR or the profitability of gaming operators. The brokerage also suggested that investors could have underestimated the extent of weakness in gaming demand.
UBS similarly highlighted the challenges facing the market in a recent research note. The banking group described analysts’ consensus expectations for October revenue as “challenging”, pointing to a slowdown in daily GGR during Golden Week.
Revenue had averaged approximately MOP$1 billion per day during the first four days of the holiday period before the daily run-rate moderated.
The outlook also differs between individual operators, depending on their exposure to particular customer segments. Truist Securities recently warned that companies with greater reliance on the base mass market could experience a more prolonged recovery period.
The base mass segment has been the slowest part of Macau’s gaming market to recover since the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially leaving operators focused on this customer group exposed to longer-lasting pressure.
The broader industry outlook remains closely connected to the government’s annual revenue expectations.
MOP$236 Billion Target Remains Within Reach
Macau’s government has established a full-year GGR target of MOP$236 billion for 2026. With casinos generating MOP$208.80 billion during the first ten months, the market needs approximately MOP$27.2 billion in November and December combined to reach that figure. This would require average monthly revenue of around MOP$13.6 billion over the final two months.
CreditSights has maintained that Macau could still achieve the government’s target. In a recent research note, the firm calculated that the market would need average monthly GGR of approximately MOP$16.3 billion during the fourth quarter to meet the annual objective.
Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai had previously emphasized the importance of October’s results. Speaking on October 10, he said the month’s revenue performance would likely prove crucial in determining whether the city could achieve its 2026 target.
The latest figures provide a mixed picture. October delivered a significant improvement compared with September, while the cumulative annual growth rate remained positive. However, the fifth consecutive year-on-year decline and weaker second-half performance highlight the challenges facing the industry as it approaches the end of the year.