The future of sports betting and casino legislation in Texas could hinge on the lieutenant governor race taking place today, November 3.
Prediction markets favor Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick to win another term over Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin. His reelection would leave the Senate agenda in the hands of the state’s most influential gambling opponent when lawmakers return in January 2027.
As of Monday, Kalshi placed Patrick’s chance of winning at 75%, while Polymarket put it at 77%, although trading volume in the lieutenant governor market was small. Texas currently has no legal sports betting or Las Vegas-style commercial casinos.
Senate leadership controls the flow of bills
The lieutenant governor presides over the Texas Senate, appoints its committees and decides which bills are referred. Patrick has said that any gambling expansion needs support from a majority of Senate Republicans before it moves forward.
That position came into play in 2023. On May 11 of that year, the House approved House Joint Resolution 102, a sports betting amendment, by a vote of 101-42, just above the 100 votes it needed. Patrick then said he would not advance the measure, and the Senate did not take it up.
Goodwin holds a different view. She supports letting Texans vote on casinos and online sports betting.
Prediction markets draw scrutiny from Patrick
Patrick has also directed attention this year toward prediction markets. In March, he instructed senators to study whether those platforms evade Texas gambling laws, and in September the Senate held a hearing on banning or regulating them.
The expansion debate in Texas centers on sports betting and destination casinos, not online casino games. No candidate in the race has publicly proposed legalizing online casino play, and the 2023 amendment covered only sports wagering.
Governor’s race offers a less defined picture
At the top of the ticket, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Kalshi priced Abbott’s chance of winning at 63% and Hinojosa’s at 37%, while Polymarket showed roughly 64% and 35%.
The contest is not a simple partisan split on gambling. Abbott has previously said he had no personal problem with online sports betting, although he has more recently expressed concern about casino gaming. Hinojosa voted against HJR 102 in 2023 and has not released a sports betting or casino plan.
The governor’s role in the process is also limited. The governor can advocate for legislation but cannot place a constitutional amendment on the ballot or veto the resolution that proposes one.
US Senate odds point to a split outcome
The US Senate race presents a different picture. Kalshi gave Democrat James Talarico a 69% chance against Republican Ken Paxton, and Polymarket showed 70%.
Those numbers point toward a split result in which Republicans are favored for governor and lieutenant governor while a Democrat is favored for the Senate.
Even if Talarico wins, the offices that influence gambling policy could stay in Republican hands. Kalshi also showed a 78% chance of Republican control of the Texas House and a 94% chance for the Texas Senate.
Two-thirds requirement limits any shift
A Texas constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers before it goes to voters. For that reason, substantial Republican support would still be necessary even if Goodwin wins. A Goodwin victory could change how the Senate handles gambling bills, but not who votes on them.
Advocates also face the precedent of 2023, when a House majority passed an amendment that still stalled.
Tuesday’s results will show whether Patrick or Goodwin controls the Senate agenda when the Legislature opens in January. The first indication will be whether a gambling resolution receives a committee hearing at all.