Lukas Robinson uses the powerful GTO Wizard training tool to analyze an interesting hand from the 2015 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event, and asks whether or not the two players involved were playing a GTO strategy 11 years ago.
The hand in question comes from the 2015 WSOP Main Event, where seven players remain. Patrick Chan and Federico Butteroni have already busted. Each of the remaining seven players is guaranteed $1,203,193, but there’s $7,680,021 up top, so every decision has a lot riding on it.
Payouts
- 1st: $7,680,021
- 2nd: $4,469,171
- 3rd: $3,359,103
- 4th: $2,638,558
- 5th: $1,910,971
- 6th: $1,440,072
- 7th: $1,203,193
Stack Sizes and Positions
Blind Levels: 250K/500K – 50K (Ante)
| Position | Player | Chip Count | Big Blinds |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTG | Neil Blumenfield | 27,475,000 | 55 |
| LJ | Zvi Stern | 34,350,000 | 68.7 |
| HJ | Pierre Neuville | 14,350,000 | 28.7 |
| CO | Joshua Beckley | 13,825,000 | 27.7 |
| BTN | Max Steinberg | 17,350,000 | 34.7 |
| SB | Thomas Cannuli | 8,175,000 | 16.4 |
| BB | Joe McKeehen | 77,125,000 | 154.3 |
Neil Blumenfield (55 big blinds) and Pierre Neuville (28.7 big blinds) clash in a significant pot that ultimately went Blumenfield’s way, and set Neuville toward a seventh-place finish. Regardless of the hand’s result, was the play of both players GTO-approved? You can watch a video of the hand by fast-forwarding to 27:03 in this YouTube video.
In the hand, Bluemfield opened to 1,200,000 from under the gun with 4♥4♣. Neuville called in the hijack with A♣K♥, and it was heads-up to a K♠Q♠4♦ flop. Blumenfield bet 1,600,000 into the 3,500,000 pot, and Neuville called.
The turn was the Q♦, and both players checked. The 3♠ landed on the river, Blumefield bet 4,000,000 into 6,700,000, and Neuville called.
Pre-flop Analysis
Blumenfield opens to 1,200,000 from UTG holding 4♥4♣. GTO Disapproved ✖️
EV for 44 pre-flop
Opening pocket fours from under the gun (UTG) in this spot actually loses $2,108 in $EV compared to folding. The solver only recommends opening pocket fives as the lowest pocket pair here, so opening with fours is the first mistake of the hand.
Neuville calls in the HJ with A♣K♥. GTO Approved ✔️
Neuville choose to flat AKo in this spot, which the solver only recommends at a very low frequency. Overall, three-betting or folding is clearly preferred against an UTG open, with calls occurring just 1.4% of the time from the HJ.
To properly analyse the post-flop decisions, I nodelocked Blumenfield to open slightly wider so that pocket fours are included in his UTG range. I also nodelocked Neuville’s range to include more flats, which better reflects the pre-flop strategy he appeared to be using, based on the AKo call.
Nodelocked UTG Opening Range
Nodelocked HJ Flatting Range
Now, let’s see what the GTO Wizard solver says about how both players navigated the hand post-flop.
Post-flop Analysis
Flop (3,500,000 Pot): K♠Q♠4♦
Blumenfield bets 1,600,000 with 4♥4♣. GTO Approved ✔️
The solver recommends a heavy betting strategy on this board. Before I explain why, let’s take a look at the flop range comparison.
UTG vs HJ Range Comparison on this flop
Although the HJ has a small equity advantage on this KQ4 two-tone flop, the EV advantage belongs to UTG. UTG holds far more of the strongest hands, giving them a clear nut advantage, while the HJ’s equity is more capped, with medium-strength holdings. This allows UTG to apply pressure with a heavy betting strategy, forcing the HJ to defend hands that struggle to realize their equity on later streets.
Recommended Strategy and EV for 44 on the flop
Blumenfield chose the highest-EV sizing of 46% (1,600,000).
Neuville calls the 1,600,000 bet with A♣K♥. GTO Approved ✔️
AKo is a pure call against this bet size. The solver does not recommend any raises here, as UTG holds the nut advantage and the HJ lacks enough strong hands to raise for value. As a result, the HJ is restricted to a call-or-fold strategy to avoid overbluffing with a capped range.
Turn (6,700,000 Pot): Q♦
Blumenfield checks with 4♥4♣. GTO Approved ✔️
UTG is now recommended to pure check on this turn. Let’s take a closer look at why.
UTG vs HJ Range Comparison on this turn card
Once the turn pairs the queen, the range advantage shifts heavily towards the HJ. After calling the flop, the HJ now has far more of the strongest hands in their range, including trips, full houses, and strong Qx, while UTG’s range becomes much more capped in comparison. Although UTG can still have some strong hands, they no longer dominate the top of the range as they did on the flop.
Because of this shift, UTG can no longer apply profitable pressure. Betting into a range that now has both the equity and EV advantage would be a mistake, as the HJ can continue very comfortably. As a result, the solver recommends a pure checking strategy from UTG on this turn card, allowing the HJ to take the betting lead and preventing UTG from overextending into a stronger range.
Neuville checks back with A♣K♥. GTO Approved ✔️
The solver recommends mixing between betting and checking with AKo on this turn after the check.
Recommended Strategy and EV for AKo on the turn
Interestingly, you can see that especially A♣K♥ wants to pure check this turn, but AKo combos with a spade or diamond prefer betting, why is that?
Since this is a final table, ICM plays a big role. A♣K♥ is a pure check because it already has strong showdown value and does not benefit from bloating the pot against a stack that covers them. Betting mainly runs into stronger continues while risking valuable chips under ICM. AKo combos with a spade or a diamond perform better as bets, as the blockers allow the HJ to deny equity, making the 40% size higher EV for those specific combos.
River (6,700,000 Pot): 3♠
Blumenfield bets 4,000,000 with 4♥4♣. Bet Approved ✔️Sizing Disapproved ✖️
The solver recommends a mix of checking, small bets (25%), medium bets (67%), and large all-in bets on this specific river card.
Recommended Strategy and EV for 44 on the river
Above you can see that going all-in with all 44 combos produces the highest EV by far, with Blumenfield’s 4,000,000 bet (67%) being the second-highest EV option. To see why the solver prefers this polarised sizing with this hand class, let’s first look at the HJ’s calling range vs this size.
HJ Calling Range vs UTG all-in
Because the HJ has very few better full houses and is forced to call with hands like trips and flushes, the solver prefers the polarised all-in sizing here rather than the 67% sizing Blumenfield used.
Neuville calls the river bet with A♣K♥. GTO Approved ✔️
Recommended Strategy and EV for AKo on the river vs bet
A♣K♥is a solver-approved call on the river against this bet size, although the solver does mix in some folding at low frequency.
Conclusion
A complicated ICM hand from start to finish. Of the two players, Neuville achieved the highest recommended plays according to the solver, consistently choosing the highest EV options both pre-flop and post-flop. Blumenfield’s biggest mistakes came pre-flop by opening pocket fours, and again on the river by leaving money on the table with a 67% bet instead of going all-in. That said, if Blumenfield exploitatively believed Neuville would fold too many hands vs an all-in compared to the 67% size he used, then his river decision could still be considered the most optimal play overall.
If you’d like to study your own final table hands and continue improving your game, click the link below to download and use GTO Wizard for free today.
Lukas Robinson
WPT Global Streamer