Cape Verde’s remarkable 0-0 draw against reigning world champions Spain at the 2026 FIFA World Cup has undoubtedly turned into the talk of the tournament, both on and off the pitch.
While the result sparked celebrations across the small island nation, it also produced dramatic outcomes in the world of prediction markets.
10x Win on Polymarket
One trader on Polymarket reportedly turned a $428,000 position into approximately $4.7 million by backing Spain not to win the match.
Before kickoff, Spain were overwhelming favorites. The European giants entered the game as defending champions and were expected to comfortably defeat Cape Verde, which is making its first appearance at a World Cup.
Another trader appeared equally convinced, reportedly staking $1 million on a Spanish victory.
Had Spain won, the return would have been relatively modest compared to the risk involved. Instead, the bettor lost the entire position after the match ended scoreless.
Risks and Rewards
On the field, Cape Verde delivered a disciplined and determined performance. Spain dominated possession and created numerous opportunities, finishing with 27 shots and seven efforts on target.
However, they were repeatedly denied by veteran goalkeeper Vozinha (Josimar Dias), whose emotional reaction at the final whistle quickly became one of the most memorable images of the tournament. The 40-year-old’s Instagram following went from roughly 50,000 before the match to 11.3 million as of June 16, 2026.
For a country of around half a million people, the result certainly marked a historic achievement.
Cape Verde defended with organization and confidence, frustrating one of the strongest teams in world football and earning a point that few observers believed was possible before the match.
While many viewed a Spanish victory as almost inevitable, some traders clearly believed the market underestimated Cape Verde’s chances of avoiding defeat.
As a reminder, 16 years ago, again while reigning champions, the same Spanish team lost its first World Cup to Switzerland 1-0, then proceeded to beat everything else in sight, taking home the trophy once more.
All in all, Spain is still one of the favorites to win the World Cup, alongside France, and most traditional sportsbooks keep them at +600 (6/1). At the moment, Polymarket is giving France a slight 17$ edge versus Spain’s 14%.