Facebook is gradually giving its algorithms more control over audience selection and campaign optimization. The market expects this shift to become more noticeable for web traffic from October to November, with advertisers relying less on manual targeting while Facebook takes a more active role in finding the right audience for a specific outcome.
PIN-UP Partners has already prepared Prediction Postback for web traffic. The solution provides a player value forecast that can be used for Meta pLTV optimization.
Why are clicks and registrations no longer enough?
As Facebook makes more decisions around audience selection, its algorithms need a better understanding of what happens after a user is acquired.
A click or registration alone is not enough. Even a first deposit does not show how valuable a player may become over time. Two users can both make an FTD but deliver very different results in the long run.
Prediction Postback adds a forecast of the player’s long-term value. At PIN-UP Partners, the prediction is generated on day six after the first deposit, based on the first five days of player activity, with an 18-month forecast horizon.
This prediction can be used for Meta pLTV optimization, allowing the algorithm to consider not only whether a player was acquired, but also their predicted value.
How will it work?
A partner runs Facebook traffic permitted in the relevant GEO. The user reaches the product and makes their first deposit.
After the first five days of activity, PIN-UP Partners generates a player value forecast and sends it to the partner through Prediction Postback on day six. The forecast can then be used with Meta pLTV.
Prediction Postback will be integrated into the PIN-UP Partners platform. The postback itself does not automatically activate optimization in Meta: the campaign still needs to meet Meta’s requirements and be configured accordingly.
What could change for testing?
According to Alexander Riddick, CEO and founder of PIN-UP Partners, Facebook campaigns today often need just one or two days to collect the initial data required for optimization.
With Prediction Postback, partners get another metric for evaluating traffic. Alongside CPA, registrations and FTDs, they can look at the predicted value of acquired players and use it to compare different campaigns or creatives. For example, a more expensive FTD does not necessarily mean a worse result if that campaign brings in players with higher predicted value.
A ready solution inside the platform
Alexander Riddick, CEO and founder of PIN-UP Partners:
“The more decisions Facebook makes about audience selection, the more important the data it receives after a user is acquired becomes. A first deposit shows that a player has converted, but it does not tell us how valuable that player may become over time.
We have already prepared Prediction Postback for this within PIN-UP Partners. On day six after the first deposit, the partner receives a player value forecast and can use it with Meta pLTV. This makes it possible to evaluate traffic not only by its initial conversions, but also by its predicted value over a longer period.”
Facebook’s new model is expected to roll out from October to November. By then, PIN-UP Partners’ partners will already have Prediction Postback ready for use with Meta pLTV.