Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to decline by 6.1% year-on-year in November, marking a sixth consecutive month of contraction, as weaker demand continues to weigh on the market, according to Seaport Research Partners.
The forecast follows data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), which showed that gaming revenue fell 10% year-on-year to MOP$21.7 billion (US$2.69 billion) in October.
Seaport Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky said weaker demand remains evident in the higher-end gaming segment, attributing the softness to weaker macroeconomic conditions in China, falling stock market valuations and government tax enforcement targeting offshore trusts held by high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) with overseas assets. Some high rollers have also delayed their visits to Macau, he said.
Based on Seaport’s analysis, VIP gaming revenue fell more than 35% year-on-year in October, whilst mass-market revenue declined by a low single-digit percentage.
Despite the November forecast, Umansky expects Macau’s GGR to fall by 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, suggesting an improvement in December. He maintained a positive long-term outlook for Macau’s gaming sector, saying current valuations of gaming stocks, particularly operators with exposure to the market, remain attractive despite the lack of near-term growth catalysts.
“While there are concerns around near-term GGR growth and the Chinese economy (along with geopolitical risks), gaming valuations (in particular those with Macau exposure) remain largely undemanding, contributing to a continued positive risk/reward positioning for most operators in the longer run,” Umansky said.
“At current valuations, we believe investors are being well compensated to take on China-related risk (in some of our coverage universe) over an extended period, warranting long-term upside potential,” he added.