With the Poker Masters Purple Jacket still up for grabs, Nicholas Palma was looking to add another big result to his impressive series.
But during the final stages of Event #8: $15,700 NLH, Palma found himself in a huge pot against Vitalijs Zavorotnijs, another player chasing his second title of the festival.
With six players remaining and $277,200 awaiting the winner, Palma moved all-in on the turn with ace-king high, putting Zavorotnijs to the test for his tournament life.
The Latvian had just top pair and, after using several time banks, made the call. He was right, and a safe river saw him scoop a 2.27 million pot to take the chip lead.
But was Zavorotnijs right to risk his tournament life with one pair? And was Palma’s enormous shove the best way to play his draw?
With the help of GTO Wizard and Lukas Robinson, PokerNews has gone down the rabbit hole on the hand to see whether both players made the correct decisions and what the solver makes of this massive final-table confrontation.
The Hand
Blinds were 20,000/40,000 with a 40,000 big blind ante. Palma started the hand with 1,540,000 (38.5 BBs) in the small blind, while Zavorotnijs had 1,155,000 (28.9 BBs) in the big blind.
Action folded to Palma, who raised to 140,000 with A♥K♥. Zavorotnijs defended with J♠10♥.
The J♥8♣7♥ flop gave Zavorotnijs top pair, while Palma picked up the nut flush draw and two overcards. Palma continued for 135,000 and Zavorotnijs called.
The 5♠ arrived on the turn and Palma moved all-in, putting Zavorotnijs to a decision for his remaining 840,000.
After using several time banks, Zavorotnijs called with his pair of jacks.
The 10♦ completed the board, giving Zavorotnijs two pair and securing the 2,270,000 pot. Palma was left with just 425,000, while Zavorotnijs moved into the chip lead.
Did Both Players Get It Right Preflop?
No complaints from GTO Wizard here.
Palma’s raise with A♥K♥ is standard, with the solver recommending that ace-king suited always raises from the small blind against the big blind.
His sizing is also right on the money. Raising to 3.5 big blinds generates the highest expected value (EV) with this hand.
Zavorotnijs’ defence with J♠10♥ is similarly straightforward. The solver continues with all suited jack-x combinations and most offsuit jack-x hands, with J8o being the weakest offsuit jack that calls against this sizing.
Calling with jack-ten offsuit produces the highest EV, making it the correct response. So far, both players are following the solver.
Why Does GTO Wizard Prefer Checking the Flop?
The J♥8♣7♥ flop is where things start getting interesting.
Palma has the nut flush draw and two overcards, but despite having plenty of equity, GTO Wizard doesn’t particularly like his 135,000 continuation bet.
In fact, the solver recommends checking 80.9% of the small blind’s range on this board, including A♥K♥.
That’s because Zavorotnijs holds both the equity and EV advantages, along with position. The big blind connects well with this coordinated flop, meaning Palma cannot simply continue betting at a high frequency because he was the preflop aggressor.
When the small blind does bet, the solver prefers either a small 25% pot sizing or a much larger 84% sizing, rather than the approximately half-pot bet Palma chose.
Checking generates the highest EV with every ace-king suited combination.
Zavorotnijs’ response, however, is solver approved.
Despite holding top pair, he doesn’t need to raise. The solver prefers calling with J♠10♥, partly because the heart in his hand blocks some of Palma’s flush draws.
There’s also the matter of ICM. With six players remaining and Palma covering Zavorotnijs, the Latvian faces an additional risk premium when putting chips into the pot.
That encourages a more cautious approach rather than building a huge pot with a vulnerable one-pair hand.
GTO Wizard has the big blind raising all-in with just 5.1% of its range against Palma’s flop bet.
Calling is the most profitable option for Zavorotnijs, and that’s exactly what he does.
Was Palma’s Massive Turn Shove a Mistake?
The 5♠ changes very little, but Palma decides to turn up the pressure.
With his nut flush draw and two overcards, he moves all-in, putting Zavorotnijs to a decision for 840,000.
It’s an enormous bet, worth around 142% of the pot, and one that could end Zavorotnijs’ tournament if he calls incorrectly.
But GTO Wizard doesn’t approve of Palma’s decision.
Although the solver recommends shoving a significant portion of the small blind’s range on this turn, A♥K♥ isn’t among the hands it wants to move all-in with.
Instead, checking or betting around 46% pot generates considerably more EV.
The reason is fairly simple. When Palma shoves, many of the hands he forces to fold are weaker ace-high, king-high and queen-high combinations.
But ace-king already beats those hands.
By moving all-in, Palma is often pushing out hands he would rather keep in the pot, while his ace and king also block some of the combinations that could fold.
A smaller bet allows weaker hands to continue and potentially pay him off. It also gives Palma the chance to build the pot before the river, where completing the nut flush could earn him the rest of Zavorotnijs’ stack.
The solver’s preferred 46% sizing also helps set up a river shove, rather than committing everything on the turn.
So which hands should Palma be bluffing with instead?
GTO Wizard favours hands such as queen-nine and king-nine, along with weaker combination draws including 4♥2♥, 4♥3♥ and 6♥3♥.
Unlike ace-king, these hands benefit considerably more from forcing better hands to fold. They also retain equity when called, making them more suitable candidates for an aggressive all-in.
Palma certainly had plenty of outs, but the solver would have preferred him to take a different route.
Should Zavorotnijs Really Call With Top Pair?
This is where the hand gets particularly interesting.
Zavorotnijs has J♠10♥, giving him top pair with a ten kicker. He’s facing an enormous turn shove from a player who covers him, with significant pay jumps still to come.
Folding would preserve his tournament life. Calling and losing would send him to the rail in sixth place for $50,400.
But GTO Wizard has no hesitation in saying that calling is the correct play.
According to the solver, almost every top-pair combination should continue against Palma’s shove. Only the weakest jack-x hands, such as J2s and J3s, prefer folding.
For Zavorotnijs’ exact J♠10♥ combination, calling generates $7,311.61 in EV, making it a highly profitable decision despite the ICM pressure.
But what happens if Palma is shoving much less frequently than the solver recommends?
GTO Wizard tested that scenario by reducing the small blind’s shoving frequency from around 41% to just 20%.
Even against this tighter range, jack-ten remains a profitable call.
The solver still continues with virtually every top-pair combination, with only J2s and J3s preferring to fold.
That makes Zavorotnijs’ decision particularly impressive. He wasn’t simply gambling that Palma had a draw. Even against a significantly tighter shoving strategy, his hand was strong enough to call.
What Can We Learn From the Hand?
This hand is a good example of why having a strong draw doesn’t automatically justify moving all-in.
Palma’s A♥K♥ had plenty of equity, but shoving wasn’t the most profitable way to play it. His hand already beat many of the combinations that would fold, making a smaller bet or check more attractive.
The solver instead prefers shoving weaker draws that benefit more from forcing better hands out of the pot.
For Zavorotnijs, the lesson is that top pair can be more than strong enough to call a huge bet, even with significant ICM pressure.
His flop call was correct, and his turn decision remained profitable even when GTO Wizard reduced Palma’s shoving frequency by more than half.
Lukas Robinson
Poker Pro & Sigma Poker Tour Ambassador