Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as Brazil’s president, keeping in place the government that introduced the country’s current betting ban through Provisional Measure 1,394.
With 99.75% of votes counted by 9:12pm Brasilia time on October 25, Lula had 51.75% of valid votes, compared with 48.25% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court.
The result overturned the first-round order from October 4, when Bolsonaro led with 47.03% against Lula’s 45.16%. Prediction markets had also favoured Bolsonaro before the runoff, with Polymarket pricing his chances at around 78% in the weeks before the vote.
As counting progressed, that position shifted sharply. By around 9pm Brasilia time, with roughly 80% of votes reported, Lula’s probability of victory on Polymarket had risen to 99%.
The result disappointed betting companies that had expected a Bolsonaro victory could lead to changes to MP 1,394. Industry representatives had reportedly been in contact with people close to his campaign about revising the measure.
Lula Government Expected to Defend MP 1,394
Lula signed the provisional measure on September 25. Betting operators’ websites went offline on October 6, while federal licences expired on October 25.
The regulated market had opened in January 2025 after operators paid R$30 million for licences. Those payments have not been refunded under the measure.
Lula defended the ban during the campaign as a way to protect indebted families and promised before the second round that betting would not return.
His victory strengthens the government’s political position, although MP 1,394 still requires congressional approval to remain in force.
Lawmakers have proposed more than 90 amendments. Some would restore sports betting, while others would maintain restrictions on online casino games.
A joint congressional committee has appointed members from both chambers, although a president and rapporteur had not yet been selected in the supplied material.
Congress and Supreme Court Could Still Change Outcome
Congress now has a central role in deciding whether regulated betting returns in any form.
Law 14.790, approved in 2023, created the framework for the regulated market. Some lawmakers may support restoring sports betting while keeping online casino prohibited.
The status of existing licences also remains unresolved. Since authorisations expired on October 25, Congress may need to determine whether operators can resume activity under previous approvals or must apply again.
MP 1,394 is also facing challenges in the Supreme Federal Court.
Justice Luiz Fux is rapporteur in three actions questioning the measure, including one filed on September 28 by industry associations ANJL and IBJR. Broadcasters and football clubs, including Flamengo, have also joined the legal fight.
Fux is expected to consider whether the measure should be suspended before the full court rules.
As reported by NEXT.io, the Attorney General’s Office defended the ban and described betting as a “dragon” that had to be tamed.
Financial Impact Adds Pressure to Debate
The supplied material also points to significant financial consequences since the suspension of regulated betting.
Operators had paid BRL30 million for five-year concessions and an additional BRL5 million in reserves. One report estimated that they lost about BRL1.2 billion in revenue after operations stopped for more than 30 days.
The same report estimated that the government lost more than BRL400 million in tax revenue during that period.
Lula’s re-election therefore settles the political leadership while leaving the future of betting unresolved.
The government is expected to continue defending MP 1,394, but Congress can still amend or reject it, and the Supreme Federal Court may intervene before the legislative process ends.