Macau’s casino industry has experienced a slower start to June, with analysts pointing to the FIFA World Cup as a key factor behind weaker gaming activity. While revenue has fallen below recent levels, Citigroup continues to expect a recovery later in the summer, supported by a busy schedule of entertainment events and concerts.
According to Citigroup estimates based on industry checks, Macau generated around MOP$9.0 billion (US$1.12 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the first 14 days of June. That equates to an average daily run rate of approximately MOP$586 million.
The figure represents a notable slowdown compared to previous periods. Citi said the daily average was about 20% lower than May’s run rate of roughly MOP$729 million and around 16% below the MOP$700 million daily average recorded during the first week of June.
The bank attributed much of the decline to the launch of the FIFA World Cup, which began on June 11 and runs through July 19.
World Cup Creates Pressure on Gaming Spend
As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau believe the tournament is drawing some gambling expenditure away from Macau casinos.
Citi noted that the World Cup’s expanded format could amplify its effect on gaming demand. This year’s competition features 48 teams and 104 matches, significantly more than previous editions. The investment bank has previously argued that the larger schedule could lead to a greater impact on casino spending than earlier major football tournaments.
Industry data reviewed by the bank indicated that VIP gaming volume in the first half of June fell by between 15% and 18% compared to the previous month. Mass-market GGR also declined, with estimates suggesting a drop of between 10% and 13%.
The report added that VIP hold rates during the second week of June appeared slightly weaker than those observed during the opening week of the month.
Earlier in June, Citi had already detected signs of softer performance. During the first seven days of the month, Macau generated an estimated MOP$4.9 billion in GGR, equal to a daily average of about MOP$700 million. At that time, the bank also pointed to mainland China’s university entrance examinations on June 7 and 8 as a factor affecting travel demand, as many parents stayed close to home during the examination period.
During that first week, VIP volume was estimated to have fallen between 5% and 8% month-on-month, while mass-market revenue declined by between 3% and 8%.
Citi Maintains June Forecast
Despite the weaker performance seen during the first half of the month, Citigroup has not altered its forecast for June.
The bank continues to project full-month GGR of MOP$19.0 billion, which would represent a year-on-year decline of 10%.
To reach that target, Macau’s casinos would need to generate between approximately MOP$613 million and MOP$625 million per day for the remainder of June, based on Citi’s calculations.
The analysts acknowledged that the market faces additional challenges beyond the World Cup. Last year’s June figures benefited from concerts by Cantopop star Jacky Cheung, creating a difficult comparison base for 2026.
Even so, Citi believes upcoming events could provide support during the second half of the month.
Entertainment Calendar Expected to Support Recovery
Several major performances are scheduled across Macau in the coming weeks. Galaxy Entertainment is hosting concerts by Hong Kong singer Keung To at Galaxy Arena, while Sands China will welcome Taiwanese singer Wakin Chau to Londoner Arena.
“We believe these could help mitigate the potential GGR decline,” Citi stated.
Looking beyond June, the bank remains optimistic about Macau’s outlook. Choi and Chau forecast that gaming revenue will decline 10% year-on-year in June and 5% in July before rebounding after the World Cup concludes.
The analysts expect a “swift GGR recovery” in mid-July, supported by a series of large-scale events. Planned attractions include performances by K-pop groups Babymonster, TWS and Enhypen, concerts by Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan, and NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.
Citigroup forecasts Macau GGR growth of 6.5% for full-year 2026 and approximately 5.7% growth during the second half of the year.
The bank also remains positive on Macau gaming stocks despite the short-term weakness. Citi described any pullback in share prices as an “enhanced buying opportunity” and maintained Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China among its preferred picks. Wynn Macau, MGM China and Melco retained buy ratings, while SJM remained the bank’s only sell-rated Macau gaming operator.