More than 150 cryptocurrency wallets active on Polymarket International may have traded using nonpublic information connected to US military activities, according to research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC).
The findings have intensified scrutiny around prediction markets, which have expanded rapidly while facing questions about regulation, transparency and potential misuse of confidential information.
ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket through May 5 and identified trading patterns it described as unusually successful long-shot activity. The research group examined wagers of at least $2,500 placed within an hour on outcomes with a probability of 35% or lower.
Among the wallets reviewed, ACDC identified 556 accounts it classified as “Orcas.” The group said these traders often created accounts, placed highly profitable trades in specialized markets where an informational advantage could exist, and then withdrew after achieving gains.
Of those accounts, 152 wallets focused on military and defense-related markets. According to the research (pdf), those wallets collectively earned $8 million, placing approximately $2 million in trades and achieving an average success rate of 97.2%.
ACDC said the trading behavior could have explanations unrelated to insider information, including chance. The group also noted that potential insiders may not always match the characteristics of the identified Orcas. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier accused by prosecutors of using classified information to place $400,000 in trades related to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s removal, was not included among the 152 wallets because he built his position over a longer period. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.
Blockchain Activity Raises Questions About Market Signals
Polymarket’s international platform records trades on a blockchain, making transactions publicly visible while keeping individual traders anonymous. ACDC said this transparency allowed researchers to identify patterns involving wallets that appeared to enter markets shortly before major events.
The organization said some of the 152 military-related wallets had already attracted attention from researchers and media reports, while dozens of others had not previously been identified.
The Department of Defense declined to comment on intelligence-related matters or third-party research findings.
The concerns come as officials and lawmakers continue examining prediction markets following previous cases involving alleged use of sensitive information. In April, a US soldier was charged with using classified information to bet on the removal of Venezuela’s president, an incident lawmakers said raised national security concerns.
Polymarket, founded in 2020, said it maintains strict monitoring procedures and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including wallets connected to the Maduro-related investigation.
The company has previously argued that the public nature of blockchain-based markets allows greater oversight.
Copycat Trading Could Expand Impact of Suspicious Activity
ACDC’s research also examined how unusual trades may influence other participants. The group said military-related Orca activity appeared to attract copycat wagers from larger traders and automated systems.
According to the report, copycat trading itself is legal and has previously appeared in prediction markets. However, ACDC said these trades may increase the visibility of potentially informed activity.
The research highlighted an example involving a prediction on US military action in Iran before June 2025 strikes. An automated trader and a large investor reportedly followed the activity with wagers of $200,000 and $100,000 respectively.
Similar patterns were identified before February US-Israeli air strikes involving Tehran, when additional first-time long-shot bets appeared after Orca activity.
“Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. It’s all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades,” ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said, according to Reuters. “It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren’t monitoring these markets.”
ACDC said the possibility that outside actors could monitor prediction markets creates additional risks because unusual transactions may reveal information about upcoming events.
Calls Grow for Stronger Controls on Prediction Markets
The research group recommended stronger identity requirements for traders and suggested that suspicious payouts should be delayed while investigations take place.
ACDC argued that relying only on identifying individuals after suspicious activity occurs may not sufficiently address insider trading risks.
“Limiting the type of people who can bet on prediction markets or relying on law enforcement investigations … will not be enough,” it said.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has sought authority over prediction markets, did not comment on the findings. The regulator has stated that it will take action against misconduct in the sector and has already brought cases involving alleged violations.
ACDC said its research focuses on corruption risks and illicit finance issues. The group concluded that markets involving sensitive nonpublic information may require additional restrictions to reduce potential national security concerns.