Wynn Resorts’ $5.7 billion Wynn Al Marjan Island project could generate more gaming revenue than the company currently expects, according to Wolfe Research.
The firm’s analysis compares the UAE market with Singapore, where limited casino licensing and strong international tourism have supported major integrated resorts. Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino believes similar conditions could help Wynn Al Marjan Island outperform Wynn’s own projections after opening in Ras Al Khaimah.
Wynn has previously forecast annual gaming revenue of up to $1.66 billion from the property.
“In building the first integrated resort-casino in the Middle East, Wynn brings its global luxury brand positioning to a UAE market brimming with demand for super-premium consumption, tourism and untold vices,” he said, as reported by Inside Asian Gaming. “According to Knight Frank, 43 per cent of the UAE’s upcoming hotel room supply through 2030 is classified as luxury. One-third of the world’s population lives within a 4-hour flight of the UAE.”
Supino added:
“Benchmarking against Singapore, another wealthy limited license casino market popular with tourists, suggests Wynn’s Al Marjan could beat the UAE GGR targets it laid out in December 2025.”
UAE Market Draws Comparison With Singapore
Wolfe Research sees Singapore’s casino sector as a useful benchmark because of its limited supply and large tourism base.
Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa have developed into two major integrated resorts under Singapore’s restricted licensing system. The research firm believes the UAE could develop along a similar path, with Wynn Al Marjan Island gaining an early position as the region’s first licensed integrated resort casino.
Previous estimates have placed potential UAE gaming revenue at between $3 billion and $5 billion annually. Wolfe Research believes the market could eventually support four or five casino properties.
Wynn Al Marjan Island is scheduled to open in September 2027. Wynn has projected adjusted property EBITDA after management fees of between $390 million and $570 million.
The UAE’s tourism profile also supports Wolfe’s outlook. Knight Frank expects luxury rooms to represent 43% of the country’s planned hotel additions through 2030.
Its location provides access to a broad international travel market, with roughly one-third of the global population living within a four-hour flight.
UAE Resort Factors Into Wynn Valuation
Wolfe Research’s expectations for Al Marjan Island contribute materially to its valuation of Wynn Resorts.
The firm assigns approximately $48 per share to Wynn’s 40% interest in the development. That figure forms part of a $128 overall price target based on 8.5 times projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA.
Wynn shares were down around 37% year-to-date in 2026 when the analysis was published. Wolfe Research sees potential upside of about 60% by the end of 2027.
The assessment assumes the UAE property can become a significant contributor to group earnings following its opening.
That would give Wynn an additional source of revenue outside its existing casino markets and increase the importance of Ras Al Khaimah within the company’s portfolio.
Risks Remain Ahead of 2027 Opening
Wolfe Research also identified factors that could affect the outlook.
Supino pointed to softer conditions at Wynn’s Macau properties as a current pressure on the business. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East represent another uncertainty for the UAE development.
Construction on Wynn Al Marjan Island briefly paused amid regional conflict involving Iran before work resumed.
The project also remains exposed to execution risk as Wynn works toward its September 2027 opening.
Despite those uncertainties, Wolfe Research believes the potential contribution from Al Marjan Island is not yet fully reflected in Wynn’s market valuation.
If the resort reaches or surpasses the company’s current gaming revenue and EBITDA projections, the UAE property could provide a substantial new earnings stream for Wynn and strengthen its position in a market with limited casino supply.