A new POLITICO and Public First survey hints that Americans are far more comfortable with prediction markets tied to sports than those linked to elections or political outcomes, showing a sharp divide in public opinion as the industry keeps growing.
More Than Half Want Legalized Sports Contracts
The poll, conducted by UK-based Public First, found that 53% of respondents believe sports event contracts should be legal, while 23% think they should be deemed illegal.
On the other hand, election-related markets faced significantly stronger resistance, with 44% saying betting on election outcomes should be illegal and 30% supporting legalization.
The findings come amid prediction market platforms’ interest in expanding beyond sports into politics, public policy, and other real-world outcomes.
Disparities Based on Event Type
Support also varied based on the type of event, with weather-related markets receiving relatively broad acceptance, with 46% in favor of legality, and award show predictions drawing similar levels of support.
However, attitudes shifted sharply when politics was involved. Markets tied to presidential pardons drew comparable opposition to election betting, with 43% of respondents saying they should be illegal.
Contracts involving comments by public figures also faced skepticism, with more Americans opposing than supporting their legality.
The strongest opposition was reserved for sensitive topics, with majorities rejecting markets related to war outcomes and acts of terrorism.
Overall, the survey shows a divided public view of prediction markets. About 29% of respondents said their growing popularity is a negative development, while 19% viewed it positively.
Nearly one-third said the trend was neither good nor bad, and many respondents said they would not personally take part in such markets.
Head-Spinning Figures
Despite the mixed sentiment, financial activity in the sector continues to grow. POLITICO reported that nearly $700 million has already been traded on 2028 US presidential election markets, while the 2024 election cycle generated more than $3.6 billion in trading volume on Polymarket’s international platform.
Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence have projected that political and public policy markets could account for more than a quarter of total prediction market trading by 2030, potentially becoming a $266 billion annual segment.
At the same time, regulators and lawmakers are taking a closer look at the industry. More than 25 bills related to prediction markets have been introduced in the United States this year, with proposals ranging from bans on election contracts to restrictions on participation by government officials.
Minnesota has already enacted the country’s first broad ban on several types of event contracts, while Tennessee has introduced penalties for manipulation and insider activity.
The survey results suggest that while prediction markets may be gaining traction in sports and entertainment, political applications remain a far more contentious frontier.