Australia is warning consumers to avoid the use of offshore prediction markets because they do not provide the legal safeguards that are found in regulated products.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has updated their MoneySmart guide as more Australians are starting to use prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
According to ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland, Australian residents using foreign prediction markets are doing business with companies that do not come under their country’s regulations and therefore do not enjoy the protections that are afforded to consumers of regulated Australian products.
Kirkland states that prediction market activities are usually treated like gambling even though they seem like financial instruments.
He said:
Whatever the legal definition of a prediction market, let’s just focus on the substance and in all practical terms, it is akin to gambling.
The Australian authority has limited insight into the severity of the situation, saying that the incidents they are currently aware of might not be the whole source of the problem and that enforcement of insider trading on international websites can be difficult.
According to Kirkland, a well-known case would involve a soldier who was charged with gambling on whether the Venezuelan president would be deposed while being involved in an operation to do that as well.
Australia has already taken action against prediction markets. In August 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket after determining it was offering unlicensed gambling services in breach of the Interactive Gambling Act.