ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market partner of FIFA for the 2026 World Cup, is under the gun after analysis of blockchain data raised questions about the authenticity of its trading activity.
ADI Predictstreet Faces Wash Trading Concerns Over $108M in Trades
An investigation conducted by The Wall Street Journal found that roughly $108 million of the $167 million traded on the platform through late September was done through cryptocurrency wallets that appear to be tied to the company. The results suggest a significant portion of the activity may not have been initiated by independent customers.
The analysis found that 99% of trading activity from late August was done by 795 wallets. These wallets were supposedly funded by a single cryptocurrency address that also collected the platform’s transaction fees. The accounts almost exclusively traded amongst themselves.
The pattern was spotted by three Harvard University students who studied publicly available blockchain records. Solidus Labs, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, corroborated their findings, while academics who have studied anomalous trading patterns also questioned whether the reported volume was the result of genuine market demand.
The activity first came to light in July during the World Cup when two wallets processed more than $81 million in transactions in hundreds of markets, it is said. After the tournament, trading slowed to a crawl, with the network of 795 wallets making up almost all of the activity.
The findings suggest the possibility of wash trading, a practice where linked accounts trade with each other to give the impression of a more active market than there really is. However, the evidence so far does not prove intentional manipulation or identify the owner of the wallets.
Gibraltar Review Finds No Evidence of Rule Breaches by ADI Predictstreet
ADI Predictstreet is licensed in Gibraltar for gambling. A preliminary review found no breach of local rules against self-trading, said Andrew Lyman, the territory’s gambling commissioner. He also argued that regulators had found no harm to consumers.
The platform faced criticism earlier this year after reports emerged that it paid more than $150 million for exclusive advertising rights tied to the 2026 World Cup. Its support has been scrutinized because it is reportedly linked to International Holding Company (IHC), a conglomerate chaired by Sheik Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a senior Abu Dhabi royal and United Arab Emirates national security adviser. IHC has denied claims that it controls Predictstreet.
ADI Predictstreet launched in April with the goal of expanding the use of prediction markets to major sporting events. In June, the company launched a soccer-focused service, which used historical FIFA data, live match information, and interactive predictions to engage viewers during the tournament.
In April, the company also announced a partnership with sports streaming platform DAZN. The deal was supposed to inject predictions into live broadcasts, so viewers could track changing odds and even play in markets based on match and tournament stats.
The latest findings could put a dent in those ambitions by raising questions about whether the platform has attracted substantial independent participation. It also raises the question of whether FIFA’s market integrity measures identified the anomalous trading patterns.