Insider trading activity on the prediction platform Polymarket may have targeted the French Ballon d’Or (Golden Ball) soccer award. Twelve accounts created between October 1 and October 20 wagered a total of $264,000 on the final top-five ranking of athletes, guessing their exact placement. They were, in order: Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Lionel Messi.
Seven Accounts Only Wagered on This Single Event
While France Football, the award’s organizer, insists an independent voting process selected the winners, betting patterns around the event are highly suspicious. Seven of these accounts placed only this single, highly improbable wager, with six doing so within 15 minutes of their creation. This activity suggests that some individuals might have received advance information about the results.
Price data also reveals potential signs of market manipulation. Contracts opened on September 29 initially assigned an 80% to 90% probability that Yamal would finish ahead of Mbappé. This trend held until October 8. On October 9, without any public announcement, this probability dropped to 55%, and eventually down to 28% by October 22. No sporting event or official statement justified this movement.
According to France Football, the integrity of the Ballon d’Or was among its top priorities. Nevertheless, the organization has launched an official probe into these suspicious betting patterns. It added that the French police would also be involved in the investigation. France Football pledged to uncover all relevant information and determine if any parties were responsible.
Insider Trading Remains a Pressing Concern for Prediction Markets
Polymarket remains banned in France as regulators have classified its contracts as a type of gambling. Without a local license, the platform cannot offer its services in the country, especially after French internet service providers were ordered to block access. However, users in the country can still access it through VPNs, circumventing the restrictions.
Polymarket recently faced additional insider trading allegations. In Israel, hundreds of newly registered accounts made successful bets on the country’s general election just before voting closed. Some accounts reportedly raked in more than $100,000 in combined profits. Polymarket said it would investigate this matter and report the activity to law enforcement.
In March, Polymarket introduced new rules against insider trading, responding to growing scrutiny. While these new guidelines specifically banned trading based on stolen information and illegal tips, proving that an account had access to privileged information remains extremely challenging. As Polymarket does not require user identity verification, unscrupulous individuals will likely continue abusing the platform.