Macquarie has estimated that prediction market activity could reach $190 billion in 2026. The projection accounts for “taker” volume driven primarily by retail and recreational traders.
Macquarie Raises 2026 Prediction Market Taker Volume Outlook
The new forecast is an upgrade on Macquarie’s previous estimate of $169 billion. If realized, the figure would also be a major leap from the $22 billion seen in 2025.
Takers are market participants who take the existing order flow rather than provide liquidity. This group includes many retail traders, while liquidity providers and professional traders are usually considered makers.
Continued expansion across prediction markets drove the revised outlook, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said. The firm also sees these platforms getting closer to the features offered by traditional sportsbooks with new products.
One of the developments in the analysis is the implementation of customizable same-game parlays. This feature, which has become standard for online sportsbooks, allows users to combine multiple results of a sports event into one.
As we move into the last months of the year, prediction markets are still doing well. In the first week of September, taker volume was $4.3 billion. That result was prior to the 2026 NFL season beginning, so the number was estimated without the added activity that typically accompanies NFL betting.
Then the football season kicked off, giving the market another boost. Prediction market taker volume set a new daily record on the opening Sunday of the NFL campaign.
Macquarie Warns Regulation Could Hinder Prediction Market Growth
September’s strong performance follows a spike in activity during the World Cup and growth in several yes-or-no contract markets.
Macquarie also expects sports-related contracts to be the main source of activity in 2026. The firm estimates they will be about 80% of total taker volume.
However, the research company thinks the market will depend less on sports over time. Categories identified as potential sources of future growth include economics, politics, cryptocurrency and entertainment. Expansion of these markets may provide operators with more opportunities to capture users beyond the world of major sporting events
Even as trading continues to grow rapidly in prediction markets, prediction market operators still face regulatory uncertainty in the United States.
Macquarie says the biggest risk to the industry is regulation. The firm said negative court rulings could restrict the availability of sports contracts and damage the industry’s long-term growth.
Some prediction market operators have been involved in legal battles over whether contracts on sports events are governed by federal commodities law or state gambling laws.
Disputes have also made their way to the federal appellate courts as operators challenge state efforts to apply gambling regulations to their operations.
Now some companies are wondering if the US Supreme Court will weigh in on the issue eventually. Legal experts and investors quoted in the analysis say a case involving prediction markets could reach the high court within the next six or seven months.