Meta Platforms is reportedly exploring a new prediction market application as chief executive officer Mark Zuckerberg is pushing a small internal team to develop a product that would compete with well-established players like Kalshi and Polymarket, according to reporting from The New York Times.
Points-Based App
Citing unnamed employees familiar with the project, the report says the app, internally referred to as Arena, would allow users to make predictions on real-world events.
However, unlike traditional prediction markets that involve real money trading, the early version is expected to operate on a points-based system. One employee noted that a transition to real money markets could be considered in the future.
If developed further, Arena would mark Meta’s second attempt to enter the prediction market space.
The company previously launched Forecast in 2020 through its New Product Experimentation unit, allowing users to “bet” on outcomes using non-monetary tokens. That platform was shut down two years later after it failed to gain significant traction.
Despite that earlier setback, Meta’s renewed interest once again proves the growing industry interest in prediction markets as a potential digital engagement tool.
The sector has expanded rapidly in recent years, with platforms offering contracts on everything from elections and sports to financial indicators and global events.
Meta’s potential entry would position it as a major new competitor in the space, given its market valuation that exceeds one trillion dollars and its tens of billions in cash reserves.
In other words, the company has sufficient financial resources to scale a new product quickly if it chooses to do so. Plus, Meta has one of the largest distribution networks on the planet, counting billions of users across Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp.
While reports suggest Arena would initially be presented as a standalone app, industry observers believe that Meta could eventually decide to integrate prediction features into its broader ecosystem.
That type of integration could significantly reshape the market, especially as prediction platforms increasingly overlap with social media and artificial intelligence ecosystems. Rivals have already begun forming similar partnerships, with Polymarket working with X and Kalshi integrating with xAI technologies.
Meta’s interest also revives long-running Silicon Valley rivalries. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who previously clashed with Zuckerberg in the early days of Facebook, now operate Gemini Space Station and its prediction-market platform, placing them once again in a competitive landscape with the Meta founder.