US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is currently regarded as the front-runner to win the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in 2028. At least, this is what traders on prediction markets say.
The New York Democrat’s rise follows a recent televised appearance on ABC’s This Week on August 9, where she hinted that she could seek the presidency when host Jonathan Karl asked about her political ambitions.
Since prediction markets never sleep, the increased attention quickly translated into heavy activity there.
Ocasio-Cortez’s Prediction Market Odds Rise
On Polymarket, Ocasio-Cortez’s implied odds of winning the Democratic nomination had climbed to 19% as of 11:15 am EST on August 13, with shares trading at 19 cents.
That represents an increase from 14 cents a month earlier.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who had been the longtime prediction market favorite, has moved in the opposite direction. His shares have fallen from 20 cents a month ago to 17 cents.
Sen. John Ossoff of Georgia was third at 15 cents, while former Vice President Kamala Harris stood at 7%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro were each at 5%.
The market movement follows a period of heightened attention around Ocasio-Cortez. She has also made headlines after announcing that she froze her eggs and following her separation from longtime partner and former fiancé Riley Roberts.
Politically, she and Sen. Bernie Sanders reintroduced the Green New Deal for Public Housing Act on August 6.
Polls Tell a Different Story
Despite AOC’s momentum among prediction market traders, standard polling currently places Harris ahead.
The RealClearPolitics average of recent Democratic presidential preference polls gives Harris a 12.5-point advantage over Newsom, while Ocasio-Cortez trails Harris by approximately 20 points.
However, those polls largely predate Ocasio-Cortez’s August 9 television appearance, meaning her recent comments about a potential presidential campaign are not yet fully reflected in the polling averages.
Vance Remains GOP Favorite
On the Republican side, prediction markets currently show a clearer contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Vance remains the leading candidate, with Polymarket shares implying a 43% chance of winning the Republican nomination. Rubio is second at 23%, while no other Republican candidate currently exceeds 5%.
Polling is also more closely aligned with the prediction markets on the Republican side. The RealClearPolitics average gives Vance an 18.2-point advantage over Rubio, with 39.8% compared with 21.6%.
With the 2028 election still well ahead, both the markets and polls are likely to shift substantially as candidates make decisions, campaigns take shape, and voters become more engaged.