Which of These 2026 WSOP Predictions Will Come True?

Will it be a record-breaking summer? That’s hard to predict.

Polymarket currently has no 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) offers, while Kalshi has just one prop, whether the Main Event will top 10,000 players.

That said, if there were a WSOP market maker for either company, here are some considerations. Below you’ll also find the inside info you need to decide which side you like

(Disclaimer: The following are for entertainment purposes only).

2026 WSOP Main Event

Will the Main Event champion be from the U.S.?

• YES: 60%. Exactly three-fifths have been American since Jamie Gold in 2006, including the last three and 7 of the last 11.
• NO: 40%. Non-Americans have won four of the last seven titles. Last year, Polymarket action on this opened at just 46.5% and dropped to 44.5% before climbing as Michael Mizrachi made his run.

Countries of WSOP Main Event Winners (since 2019)

Related Question: Will over half of the final table be American (35% as this hasn’t happened since 2021)?

Will there be at least 400 women in the Main Event?

• YES: 50%. Just a tiny push from Leo Margets‘s final table run last year will do the trick. The record of 395 was set in 2023.
• NO: 50%. The same reasons that there won’t be 10,000 total players apply here — the economy is down, and plane fares are up.

Women in the Main Event (since 2021)

Related Question: Will at least 50 women cash (50% as it will only take one more after a record 49 women cashed last year)?

Will a woman reach the Main Event final table?

• YES: 10%. Leo Margets finished 7th last year, and women make up roughly 4% of the field, so they should get there more often than they do.
• NO: 90%. Until last year, only one woman had ever reached the last 9.

Last Woman Standing (since 2021)

Will the Main Event champion be at least 30 years old?

• YES: 80%. The last seven winners have all been over 30, with an average age over 40! The streak actually goes one more year, but John Cynn, at 33 in 2018, drags the average down.
• NO: 20%. The current streak is an aberration; from 2008 to 2017, nine of the ten winners were in their 20s. The grind of the Main Event, online reps, and the accessibility of solver tools all favor the young.

WSOP Main Event Winners Ages (since 2018)

Related Question: Will the Main Event champion be at least 40 years old (35%)?

Other Bracelet Events

Will the GGPoker $215 Mystery Millions set a new record for entries?

• YES: 40%. It’s already happened four straight years. As an online event with a low buy-in, the barrier to entry is minimal.
• NO: 60%. The economy will end the streak.

GGPoker $215 Mystery Millions Entries (since 2022)

Will the record for entries in a live tournament be broken?

• YES: 25%. The lowest buy-in events will suffer the least from the economy, and last year’s $300 Gladiators of Poker had 24,629 entries, the second-most ever.
• NO: 75%. Attendance will be down across the board as fewer players fire multiple bullets in rebuy events.

Largest Live WSOP Events

Will someone win three bracelets?

• YES: 25%. Benny Glaser did it last year. Scott Seiver did it two years ago. With so many events, it could happen for the third straight time this year.
• NO: 75%. It’s still incredibly hard to do. Before 2024, the feat had only been accomplished six times in 53 years.

Players Who Won Three Bracelets in a Year

Will at least eight players win two bracelets?

• YES: 60%. Ignoring 2020 and its abbreviated pandemic schedule, this feat has been accomplished an average of over nine times every year since 2021.
• NO: 40%. From 2004 to 2020, the average was less than 2.5.

Multiple Multiple-Bracelet Winners (since 2020)

Will women win two or more open bracelets?

• YES: 45%. This is clearly an even-year phenomenon as the record of four was set in 2020 and tied in 2024. In total, even years lead odd years 23 bracelets to 15.
• NO: 55%. The average since 2012 is just 1.6. I thought there was less than a 10% chance of a shutout last year, and I was wrong.

Female Open Bracelets (since 2020)

Related Question: Will any woman win an open event (80% as women have won at least one bracelet every year since 2012 except for 2022 and 2025)?

Will a country get its first bracelet?

• YES: 90%. It’s happened every year since 2017, and all it takes is one guy on his laptop or cell phone logged into GGPoker.
• NO: 10%. The countries without a bracelet aren’t exactly poker hotbeds. Six countries with over 100 million people don’t have a bracelet, but how would you like to pick between Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Congo, Ethiopia, and Egypt?

Country First Bracelets (since 2020)

Will a country get its first female open bracelet?

• YES: 25%. Most countries don’t have one (only 11 do). Obvious candidates include Australia, Austria, China, France, Italy, and Sweden.
• NO: 75%. The ratio of female players to male players is lower outside the U.S. as the low turnout (197 players) in the WSOP Europe Ladies Championship shows.

Country First Female Open Bracelets

Will Shiina Okamoto reach the final table of the Ladies Championship for the fourth straight year?

• YES: 25%. Okamoto is clearly the class of the field, and her 2nd-1st-1st streak is reminiscent of Johnny Chan’s 1st-1st-2nd in the 1987 to 1989 Main Events. Chan’s competition might have been tougher, but Okamoto handled much larger fields (1,295 + 1,245 + 1,368 vs. 152 + 167 + 178).
• NO: 75%. Nobody is that good, and luck plays far too strong a role to even consider a heads-up fourpeat.

Shiina Okamoto’s Ladies Championship Results

Will Daniel Negreanu (75) catch Phil Hellmuth (80) in career final tables?

• YES: 30%. Negreanu made six final tables last year and just missed three others.
• NO: 70%. It’s a moving target. Even if the Canadian makes five final tables to get to 80, Hellmuth could add to his total to stay in first place.

Career Final Tables (9th Place or Better)

_{*Hellmuth made his 81st WSOP final table on Monday, June 1.}

Will someone overtake Kristen Foxen as the female career leader in winnings ($3,610,681)?

• YES: 20%. One big score would be enough to catapult numerous women into first place. Three strong possibilities are Liv Boeree (the previous leader), Maria Ho (only 3-time Main Event Last Woman Standing), and Annette Obrestad (recently returned to action at WSOP Europe after a long hiatus).
• NO: 80%. Boeree doesn’t play much (30 cashes in 18 years), so it’s very hit or miss. Wenling Gao came out of nowhere in 2020 to take the lead, but the bar is too high now for that to happen again. Natasha Mercier isn’t likely to rack up a million this year as her biggest single score is just $284,911.

Career Winnings, Women ($2 Million Plus)

Will any open final table feature multiple women?

• YES: 90%. Multiple women have reached the same open final table 41 times since 1991 and every year since 2017. It’s very likely to happen at least once for a record 10th straight year.
• NO: 10%. Margets may spur more women to play the Main Event, but the effect will be less for other events.

Open Final Tables With Two or More Women (since 2017)

Related Question: Will women break the record of five set in 2021 (about a 15% chance)?

WSOP Las Vegas will give out around half a billion dollars. Records will fall. Some players will win life-changing money, while others will be happy to add their name to the Hendon Mob database (PokerNews as well, of course). And a good time will be had by all.