California tribal leaders reaffirm their intention to pursue a statewide, tribally led online sports betting ballot initiative in 2028. The initiative seeks to ensure equitable participation among all 109 federally recognized tribes while protecting tribal sovereignty in the face of emerging challenges from federally regulated prediction markets.
During a panel at the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States Summer Meeting in San Diego, California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) Chair James Siva confirmed, “Yes, yes, we’re still very much looking at 2028 as the date that tribes are preparing to move forward with a tribally led initiative for an online sports betting market.” Siva was joined by Cahuilla Band of Indians Chair Erica Schenk and Yuhaaviatam of San Manuel Nation Vice Chair Johnny Hernandez Jr. The session was moderated by Connecticut Representative Bill Buckbee and Oklahoma Representative Steve Bashore.
Equity and Sovereignty at the Forefront
Tribal leaders emphasized that any future regulatory framework would prioritize equity among California tribes. “We’ve really focused on equity amongst tribes… trying to make sure that no tribe gets left behind as we expand gaming,” Siva stated. This model extends the state’s existing Revenue Sharing Trust Fund, which ensures smaller and non-gaming tribes benefit from larger tribal casino revenues. Among the 109 tribes in California, 73 currently operate limited or no gaming facilities, yet the initiative seeks to guarantee their participation in any future online sports betting revenue.
The emphasis on equity reflects lessons from other states. In Arizona, for example, online sportsbooks partnered with select tribes, leaving others without access to licenses or revenue. California leaders intend to avoid similar disparities, ensuring all tribes maintain a role in potential partnerships with commercial sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel.
A central concern for California tribes is the rapid growth of federally regulated prediction markets. Platforms such as Kalshi offer sports event contracts that bypass state-regulated tribal gaming, siphoning revenue from tribal operators. Siva described these markets as “the largest, most impending threat we’ve faced since the creation of this industry,” estimating that sports-related prediction markets alone have already diverted roughly 5% of tribal gaming revenue.
Hernandez echoed the urgency, noting that these platforms “take the food literally out of our tribal members’ mouths” by drawing activity away from physical casinos. Tribal leaders have opposed state bills that would merely restrict participation for certain groups, warning that partial measures might strengthen the legal position of prediction markets as lawful enterprises.
Strategic Planning Ahead of 2028
Tribal representatives highlighted that the next two years would be spent building consensus across the state and monitoring regulatory developments nationwide. Siva referenced recent legislation in Ohio and Wisconsin, where tribal exclusivity and online wagering frameworks offer potential models for California. Wisconsin tribes, for example, now control statewide mobile sports betting under an IGRA-compliant hub-and-spoke model, receiving a guaranteed revenue share from commercial partners.
The panel also stressed the importance of timing. Leaders indicated that any ballot measure would only proceed when public polling shows strong voter support. Historical context underscores this caution: in 2022, California voters overwhelmingly rejected competing sports betting initiatives not led by tribes, granting tribes a decisive victory in protecting their Class III gaming exclusivity.
California tribes remain focused on preserving sovereignty while promoting inclusivity and fairness. “As we look at the next 5–10 years, it’s about protecting what we built… and preserving our situation so we are not set back by 30 years,” Siva said, as reported by InGame. The initiative also underscores a broader national significance, as California tribes generate around $13 billion annually in gaming revenue, representing over a quarter of U.S. tribal gaming revenue and roughly 10% of the combined U.S. commercial and tribal gaming market.
Tribal leaders plan to continue education, advocacy, and careful monitoring of developments in other jurisdictions to inform their strategy. Their unified approach is designed to safeguard both financial interests and cultural authority in California’s gaming landscape.